A consensus that has been oft-repeated lately is that Peak Season is likely to fall short of previously promising expectations. That was one of the main takeaways from a recent report published by the Tompkins Supply Chain Consortium, entitled Peak Season Trends and Strategies Survey Report.
The report was based on feedback from roughly 80 retailers, manufacturers, and wholesalers and distributors, and the findings were initially released at Tompkins’ Supply Chain Leadership Forum in last month.
When looking at Peak Season strategies, the report found that more than 40 percent of the report’s respondents have lowered the amount of SKUs (stock-keeping unit) they are selling.
The report’s authors explained that this reduction is because “wounds from the 2008 and 2009 holiday season are still fresh in the minds of retailers and consumer product manufacturers.” And they added that more than 1 in 3 respondents reported plans to stock fewer items in an effort to hedge against past situations like the deep end-of-season discounts of 2008 and the willingness to incur stock-outs in 2009.
When it comes to building up inventory levels in advance of Peak Season, the survey found that 11.1 percent plan to do so in June or earlier, with another 13.3 percent in early August and 22.2 percent in late August, and 15.6 percent in late October or November. Rounding out the top five were early September, late September, and early October, each coming in at 8.9 percent. And early July and late July hit 4.4 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively.
At last week’s Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) Annual Conference in Philadelphia CEVA Logistics CEO John Pattullo said that at the moment there is only a modest upturn occurring as a result of Peak Season activity and is less than a conventional Peak Season.
This sentiment also rang true in recent research by Drewry Consultants, which stated that Transpacific ocean spot rates are declining, with rates down more than 30 percent compared to a year ago.
Drewry noted that while inbound volumes are better than expected, rate decline signals a soft peak season for pre-holiday imports from Asia. What’s more, vessel capacity continues to outpace cargo growth, leaving cargo interests with plenty of space on ships and depressed spot rates.
The current scenario regarding Peak Season is decidedly different from a Logistics Management readership survey conducted in early June. That survey found that 78 percent—or 367 of the 469 respondents expected a Peak Season this year, with another 45 percent—or 195 respondents—expecting it to be more active than a year ago, followed by 20 percent (87 respondents) calling for it to be less active, and 34 percent (147 respondents) expecting it to be the same as last year.
Looks like a bumpy ride ahead